Injuries and the Questions They Raise

 According to a story in the NYT last week, in the last six months 33 minor and major league pitchers have had Tommy John reconstructive surgery on their elbows.  The latest casualty is Jose Fernandez, rookie of the year in the NL last season; I should also note that White Sox fans are holding their collective breath on ace Chris Sales, who’s been out of action for a month due to issues with his left arm.  So, what’s up?

For openers, I’d say read the data correctly.  Again, sabermetricians, do something useful for a change and chart pitcher injuries decade by decade.  This would allow us to see if such injuries are on rise or if they were mislabeled by teams that weren’t in the know.  Put another way, this is like autism, which may or may not be increasing given how much better we’ve become in the last five years at diagnosing the condition.

For argument’s sake, say elbow injuries are on the rise.  Why?  Some observers think it’s because so many pitchers throw hard.  (I also just read a piece in SI lamenting the explosion in strikeouts—they tend to get boring after a while.)  Or it could be that they’ve been throwing so hard for so long, since Little League and travel ball.  Again, maybe, but some hard data would be nice to bolster such arguments.

Consider when people start waxing nostalgic about “the good old days” before pitch counts; you know who you are, Fergie Jenkins.  How many elbow injuries were there in 1956 or 1967?  If there were fewer injuries back then, were pitchers throwing differently, more change ups and palm balls, or is it something else?  And if the rate of injury was just as great, then aren’t we talking about a chronic problem peculiar to the sport?  Any time you want to get started, Bill James.

Or people will talk about how great it was before travel, when kids played for the love of the game, “from sunup to sundown.”  Oh, so playing 8-12 hours day after day in the summer didn’t cause injuries to young arms?  I wonder.  But maybe the past was different in one way.  Kids never specialized in one sport until the last decade or so.  I think the explosion in college tuition rates and pro contracts has caused that problem.  I’m all for rolling back both but won’t be holding my breath for it to happen anytime soon.

Now, what about women?  For them, it’s not so much the arm as the ACL.  As I’ve already said, it may be that arm injuries have been ignored because it’s “just” female athletes we’re talking about.  But let’s say there is a sizable difference in the rate of injuries for pitchers by gender.  Then what?  Well, can the windmill motion be modified for baseball? (If so, Jennie Finch should come out of retirement as a possible Jackie Robinson).  If submarine is as close as you can get to windmill, what’s the injury data on that style of pitching?  As I recall, Ted Abernathy switched to it after suffering an arm injury, and he pitched 14 seasons in the majors.  Would submarine starters be more durable than hard throwers?

Data, folks, data.