The Inevitable "Big Fish" Head and Lead

Well, the Angels reeled in Mike Trout, signing their 27-year old star centerfielder to a 12-year, $430 million extension.  This leads to a couple of questions, starting with, “How do you like the market now, Kris Bryant?”

 

I also have to wonder how Bryce Harper and his agent Scott Boras are doing.  Harper/Boras wanted to have the biggest contract in baseball, right?  How long did that $330 million deal qualify, 18 days or thereabouts?  Oh, and Bryce, you’re now stuck in Philadelphia for the next twelve years.  Somewhere, W.C. Fields is smiling.

 

According to a related story on mlb.com, Trout, if he stays healthy this season, can expect to surpass a whole bunch of baseball legends in WAR (wins above replacement), including Willie McCovey; Duke Snider; Luis Tiant; Don Sutton; Ernie Banks; Jim Palmer; Rick Reuschel; Derek Jeter; Frank Thomas; and Reggie Jackson.  Huh?

 

Trout at the age of 27 has proven more valuable than any and all of the above, for the entirety of their careers?  Oh, I don’t think so.  First off, pitchers’ WAR and players’ WAR verge on apples and oranges.  Players can’t dominate a game, a series or a season the way a pitcher can.  (See Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson and Steve Carlton, among others.)  Second, someone like Jeter has shown what he can do not only in the regular season but the postseason as well.  Mr. Yankee has appeared in 33 postseason series vs. one for Trout, who batted a not-too-robust .083 in the 2014 ALDS.

 

And Jeter?  Well, take your pick: .343 in 16 ALDS series; .257 in 10 ALCS; and .321 in 7 World Series.  Throw in 61 total RBIs (including 9 in those World Series), and suddenly WAR becomes a very subjective mathematical concept.  That said, I really like Mike Trout and hope he can at least match if not surpass Jeter’s numbers.

 

But that $430 million puts Trout in a brave new world (with Harper in the potential hell of Philadelphia).  That money may as well be a bullseye because he’s going to be the target of boo birds just waiting for the first signs of a slump.  And they’ll have 430 million reasons to be louder than loud, and obnoxious, too.  And, while we’re talking numbers, baseball-reference projects that Trout will hit .299 in the upcoming season, with 92 runs scored, 30 homeruns and 74 RBIs.

 

Do those numbers justify that contract?  Will they?