A Big Gamble

With the White Sox posting an over/under of 53.5 wins in gambling circles, there’s not much to do other than wait. But the Cubs, well, we can have some fun with them. The modus operandi for the North Siders seems to be a mix of retreat and confusion. Are they a big-market team or not? Kind of depends on the day of the week you ask. And Tom Ricketts does show signs of turning into Jerry Reinsdorf light when it comes to team payroll, as in small is never enough. Kids or veterans? Again, it depends on the day and the lineup card. Matt Shaw has gotten the nod at third, Pete Crow-Armstrong is a ball of excitement in center field and the top of the order. But what about right field? That’s the current home of Kyle Tucker, Jed Hoyer’s big offseason acquisition. Tucker is a talented 28-year old lefthanded hitter with 125 career homeruns and a .274 BA, stats that indicate he’ll be close to or at the top of the list of free-agent talent come season’s end. Will the Cubs sign him; let him walk; or trade him come July? Depends on the day of the week. What’s interesting is that Tucker is off to a slow start, hitting .100 in spring training while going 1-for-8 in the two games against the Dodgers. I mention this because of Cam Smith, the 22-year old prospect the Cubs traded for Tucker. Hoyer drafted the righthand-hitting Smith in the first round last June, and all the Florida State product did was hit .313 over three levels of the minors (low-A, high-A, Double-A), with seven homers and 24 RBIs. Wait, there’s more. In spring training, Smith hit .342 with four homers and eleven RBIs. Guess who Houston’s new right fielder is? With 32 minor league games under his belt, Smith makes his MLB debut in near-record time, third fastest ever for a position player taken in the draft. Hoyer has taken a real gamble here. If he signs Tucker who then settles into a nice career on the North Side, then he wins, how much depending on how well Smith does in comparison. If Tucker is one-and-done, not good, unless Smith is a bust, in which case no-harm-no-foul. Me, I remember the Sox trading Tommie Agee for Tommy Davis. When in doubt, go young. Had the Cubs gambled on Smith and Smith began producing from the start, money that might have gone to sign Tucker could have gone to an extension locking up Smith for a nice, long time. But, at the end of the day, not my team, not my gamble.