Kick the Tires First

Not that I believe in sports’ conspiracies, but the media sure seems interested in Japanese pitcher/hitter Shohei Otani, the 23-year old phenom who wants to play in the majors next year.  Not only that, Otani, who pitches from the right side and hits from the left, wants to do both in the bigs.  I wouldn’t bet on it, though.

From the time of Babe Ruth, the rule of thumb in baseball has been to find what a player does better and concentrate on that one thing.  It seems to have worked with Ruth, 94 career wins vs. 714 homeruns and a certain immortality.

If I didn’t know better, I’d swear Otani had Scott Boras as his agent.  Look, he’s got a 42-15 career record!  Look, he has a career batting average of .286 with 48 homers and 166 RBIs!  To which I would say, Yeah, what’s your point?  You actually mean to say he’s going to throw 150-plus innings with 500-plus plate appearances?  I doubt it.

Japanese players tend to fall into the category of good but not great, Ichiro excepted.  What Otani has done is nice in a high-A league sort of way.  Now, consider that he’s 6’3” and all of 189 pounds, had quad and ankle injuries this season, and is just coming off of ankle surgery.  A skeptic might say Otani’s body is already breaking down from the strain.

Right now, Otani would cost an MLB an estimated $20 million posting fee to his Japanese team in addition to a minor-league salary and a signing bonus that's capped at just over $3.5 million.  (Any mega deal for Otani would have to wait until he reaches age 25, at which point there’s no cap on what he can sign for.) The question then becomes, Do you want to gamble that money on Otani becoming the next Babe Ruth, only better?  Not me.