Warring Numbers

The Sun-Times runs an occasional sports’ column by an acolyte of analytics.  Yesterday, he considered the HOF worthiness of Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans and Kenny Lofton.  So far, so good.  Then he had to start talking gibbermetrics.  WAR, or wins above replacement, I get but don’t believe in.  As for bWAR and OPS+, give me a break.

I bet you didn’t know there’s a bWAR not to be confused with WARP, rWAR or fWAR.  In other words, different publications use different formulas to calculate wins above replacement; “bWAR” indicates the writer is using the version favored by baseballreference.com.  And here I thought analytics was supposed to provide clarity in judging performance.  These clowns can’t even agree on what formula to use in confusing the rest of us.

As for OPS, that’s on-base percentage plus slugging percentage.  OBP has been around a long time, informally since the start of the game.  A hundred years ago, one fan probably said to another, “Jones is hitting .325 but doesn’t get any walks.  Smith is batting .299 with close to a hundred walks.  I like him better.”  So, OBP is that conversation quantified, which I can live with.

Slugging percentage is based on values given hits divided by at-bats: one times the # of singles for a player in a season plus two times the doubles plus three times the triples plus four times the homeruns divided, as I mentioned, by at-bats. All this basically tells you is that your cleanup hitter should have a higher slugging percentage than your leadoff hitter; if it’s reversed, your team might be in trouble.  What does adding OBP with slugging percentage give you, beyond a number?  Damned if I know.  In case you’re wondering, OPS+ takes into account how ballparks and leagues can affect a player’s OPS (I think).  Easy-peasy, right?

Different groups champion different measures, to which I say, go for it, guys.  But I wonder what all this purported measuring of baseball performance has accomplished.  Analytics says that stolen bases and sacrifice bunts are overrated if not bad because they can produce outs while launch angle and exit velocity are cool.  Let’s say they are.  Then where are all the number crunchers in the stands or in front of the TVs?  Attendance and ratings are down, from what I gather, unless the crunchers are glued to other platform, turning plays into algorithms.\

In which case, heaven help us all.