MLB.com did a story last week,
“These trades were stacked with WAR.”
After reading it, all I can say is the game is doomed if it doesn’t pry
itself loose from the grip of analytics, and soon.
The trade that interested me most was
the one that sent Joe Morgan and others from the Astros for Ley May and others
after the 1971 season. Not only did
Cincinnati get Morgan but Cesar Geronimo, Denis Menke and Jack Billingham,
too. Apparently, Houston was content
with May and Tommy Helms in exchange. As
for Jimmy Stewart and Ed Armbrister, I’ll let you figure out who went where.
Here’s the thing that gets
me. May has a career WAR of 27.2 vs.
28.1 for Menke. (Morgan’s WAR of 100.5
isn’t in question.) Over the course of
eighteen seasons, May hit .267 with 2031 hits; 354 homeruns; and 1244
RBIs. And Menke? In thirteen seasons, he hit .250 with 1270
hits; 101 homers; and 606 RBIs.
How in heaven’s name, then, can Menke
qualify as the better player? Because he
spent the bulk of his career at shortstop, along with time at second and third
base? First basemen-DHs with over 1200
RBIs are a dime a dozen? That Menke’s
.163 BA in the postseason matters more than May’s .263, or that somehow May’s
.368 BA in two World Series—with 8 RBIs against the Orioles in 1970, by the way—shouldn’t
be compared to Menke “raking” at a .163 clip in the postseason (and .083 in one
World Series)? Explain this to me.
And, while you’re at it, tell me
how Jack Billingham, with career stats of 145-113 and a 3.83 ERA manages a
career WAR of 7.4? Oh, it must be Billingham’s
crappy World Series stats—2-0 with a 0.36 ERA over 25.1 innings in seven games
and three Series. Would I trade
Billingham for Morgan? No. For May?
No. For Menke? In a heartbeat.
WAR is a harmless enough stat to
argue about over pizza. Beyond that,
though, I worry it’s going to be a bar to HOF entry for players from Minnie
Minoso and Tommy John to Jim Kaat and Rusty Staub. Not good.
WAR, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing.
No comments:
Post a Comment