Thursday, November 17, 2022

Apples and Oranges, or Not

Dylan Cease of the White Sox finished second in AL Cy Young voting, with Justin Verlander picking up his third award. Good for Cease. Maybe someday he’ll put up stats equal to the Sox pitchers of my youth. On the other hand, he may already have done that, if you believe baseball-reference.com. Cease went 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA; 227 strikeouts vs.78 walks; and a WHIP of 1.109 in 184 innings on the season. Plug those numbers into the magic algorithm, and he comes out with a WAR of 6.4, tops for qualifying starters in the American League. Still, I wonder. Gary Peters went 20-8 with a 2.50 ERA in 273.2 innings for the ’64 Sox, yet the magic algorithm gives him a mere 4.2 WAR. Joel Horlen went 19-7 with a 2.06 ERA in 258 innings for the Hitless Wonders of 1967, one of those wins being a no-hitter against the Tigers. But Horlen merits only a 5.5 WAR. Who was the better pitcher? You tell me. I’ll use WAR to hope Cease can top what Wilbur Wood accomplished in 1971—a won-loss record of 22-13 with a 1.91 ERA in 334 (!) innings. That all comes out to an 11.8 WAR. Hit that mark, Dylan, and the Sox are the going to the World Series.

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