Why Pitch Counts Count

“Old-school” MLB pitchers like to rail against pitch counts, which is a pretty sure bet they enjoyed careers that were relatively injury-free (isn’t that right, Fergie Jenkins?).  So, rather than hear from a pitcher during the Stone Age who was a genetic freak in his own way, how about tracking down a few pre-Tommy-John-surgery, pre-pitch-count pitching prospects who blew out their elbows?  Then, add a few of all the guys who developed bad shoulders after throwing 130-150 pitches game after game.

The more hitters hit, the better the chance they’ll figure things out.  The more pitchers pitch, the closer most of them get to a career-ending injury; those are the breaks of the game.  Given that reality, pitch counts make perfect sense, as important as any sabermetric tool, if not more so.  One hundred pitches a game strikes me a as reasonable workload for starting pitchers.  What matters next, or should, is where in the game those 100 pitches lands a pitcher.

Take yesterday, when White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez threw 100 pitches plus another seven in his start against the Rangers.  That 107-pitch pitch count took Lopez through eight full innings in a 3-0 Sox win.  It’s a manager’s dream to have his starter go deep in the game with a low pitch count.

Now, let’s go around MLB and see where 100 or so pitches found other starters yesterday.  Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox needed 110 pitches to get through 5.2 innings against the Orioles, this in a 5-0 Boston win; that’s not really good.  It took Junior Guerra of the Brewers 91 pitches to get as far as one out in the fifth inning against the Twins.  How do you say, “That’ll tax your bullpen”?  By the way, Milwaukee lost. And last but not least there’s Joe Biagini of the Bluejays.  Eighty-seven pitches netted him four innings, four runs and a loss in his start against the A’s.

Long story short: pitch counts tell you what kind of starter you have.  Anyone who finishes seven innings in 100 pitches is a keeper.  Everyone else needs to get to work before their arm gives out.